Everyone seems to reliably underestimate the value in increasing the quantity. I hate that our best people stop producing television so they can try to do movies. You’re giving me so much less content! Come back.

Claims about experts:

Paul Graham: One way you can tell real experts is that they hedge less. They'll tell you what's not the case. People with merely moderate expertise can't say that, because they're not sure.

Of course, people who know next to nothing about a subject also speak decisively about it. There's a sort of midwit peak of hedging. So this test only works to distinguish experts at the high end.

Emmett Shear: People who want to end all experience of negative reinforcement either (a) believe you negative reinforcement is not needed for an effective system to maintain homeostasis, or (b) believe you should avoid experiencing some real things happening in your mind.

I think both (a) and (b) are clearly somewhere between “false” and “wrong” and that existence of negative reinforcement is important for system function and it is good to experience what is there.