How We’re Fooled By Statistics

TL;DR

Positive feedback is generally more effective than negative feedback in improving performance, but cultural differences, task dependence, and regression to the mean can influence results.

Transcript

Which is most effective for helping people learn: punishment or reward? Well, consider the case of Israeli fighter pilot training, because instructors there found that negative feedback was far superior to positive feedback. If a cadet performed a particularly poor maneuver they would reprimand him. But they noticed that on follow up attempts, his ... Read More

Key Insights

• 🧑‍🏫 Negative feedback was found to be more effective in Israeli fighter pilot training, while positive feedback yielded better results in studies with teachers and rugby players.
• ❓ Cultural differences and task dependence can influence the effectiveness of feedback strategies.
• 🐕‍🦺 Regression to the mean explains why exceptional performance is often followed by average performance and vice versa.
• 👥 Clinical trials must use control groups to differentiate the effects of a drug from random chance.
• ❓ Regression to the mean can influence perception and misattributions of feedback effectiveness.
• 🥺 Our natural tendency to see patterns and causality can lead to biases in understanding feedback outcomes.
• ❎ Positive feedback is generally more effective, but negative feedback may have specific contexts where it can be beneficial.

Questions & Answers

Q: Why did negative feedback work better for Israeli fighter pilots?

The effectiveness of feedback may vary due to cultural differences or task dependence. Negative feedback may be more critical in certain contexts, such as learning to fly a fighter jet.

Q: How does positive feedback affect performance in different studies?

Studies with teachers and rugby players showed that positive feedback increased task engagement, performance, and even physiological changes, such as higher testosterone levels. Positive feedback has generally been found to be more effective.

Q: What is regression to the mean?

Regression to the mean refers to the statistical tendency for extreme events to move closer to the average over time. In the context of performance, exceptional results are likely to be followed by more average results, regardless of feedback.

Q: How does regression to the mean impact research and perception of feedback?

Regression to the mean can lead to misinterpretation of feedback. When performance improves after negative feedback, it may be due to regression to the mean rather than the feedback itself. Our tendency to see patterns and causality can lead to misplaced belief in the effectiveness of negative feedback over positive feedback.

Summary & Key Takeaways

• Israeli fighter pilot training found that negative feedback was more effective in improving performance, while positive feedback often led to a decline in subsequent attempts.

• Research involving teachers showed that increasing the ratio of positive to negative feedback increased student engagement and task completion.

• Rugby players who received positive reinforcement and praise after a game performed better in the next game and had higher testosterone levels compared to those who received negative feedback.